Dear Members and Friends,
It is no secret that the
world economy, and therefore trade, is gaining traction. Economic data points
have been indicating that this has been the case over the past 12 months or so.
And recent central bank activity by the US Federal Reserve is testament to
this. The momentum in global activity has spilled over onto 2018 from what has
been a year of transition. In the IMF’s recent World
Economic Outlook Update, it therefore comes as no surprise that the forecast
for the world economy’s growth in both 2018 and 2019 has been revised upwards
to 3.9 percent. The Asian Development Bank has reported a fall in the trade gap
down to “only” US$1.5 trillion. Whilst unsatisfied demand remains enormous, and
new technologies are just starting to make a dent, the trend is on the right course.
Emerging markets began the New
Year as they started off, in a strong vein, but the weakness brought about from
rising benchmark yields in the US crept in. Having said that, demand for
emerging markets remained robust and is expected to stabilise, with premiums
rising albeit slightly from current levels. As had been expected, following the
strong show in emerging markets in the past 18 months, the sharp correction
witnessed of last year was far from inevitable, and spreads could widen in a
much smoother fashion. Further growth of interest rates in the US will
inevitably translate into higher borrowing costs for EM issuers, and could
also, in the long run result in a slowdown in activity but this does not
necessarily have to be a sharp and panic-inducing process.
Registrations to the 45th ITFA
Annual Conference have started to flow in. We encourage you to
register and take advantage of the Super Early Bird Package which is available
till mid-April. Cape Town awaits us - a coming-together of cultures, cuisines
and landscapes. The members of the ITFA Board are extremely keen to welcome you
to this fantastic coastal city in South Africa.
In this
edition of the 2018 ITFA Newsletter you will find an article written by André
Casterman, the very active chair of our Fintech Committee, entitled ''Collaborating
with Fintechs does not mean taking risks, quite the contrary’’. James Collins has
contributed ''The Updated Wolfsberg Principles 2017 – now called the ‘Wolfsberg
Group, ICC and BAFT Trade Finance Principles''. We also publish a notice concerning the establishment of an ITFA
Insurance Related Think Tank (IRTT) to supplement the Insurance Committee’'. Our
regular feature - Chart of the Month, contributed by Dr. Rebecca Harding
We look forward to hearing from you with any feedback you may want to
share with us by sending an email to myself, any of the Board Members or to our
general email, info@itfa.org.
Best wishes,
Sean Edwards
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